Abstracts
Résumé
Les changements climatiques sont au coeur de nouvelles préoccupations chez les aménagistes forestiers. En vue d’une compensation des émissions anthropiques de carbone, la forêt boréale devient de plus en plus au centre des discussions. Le climat froid et la saison de croissance courte amènent la forêt boréale à capter une faible quantité de carbone en comparaison avec la forêt tropicale ou la forêt tempérée. Toutefois, la décomposition de la matière morte, processus qui émet du carbone, y est également faible. La matière organique est alors accumulée au sol. En réponse à un réchauffement du climat, des modèles indiquent que la capacité de la forêt boréale à capter du carbone pourrait augmenter. Les modèles actuels comportent néanmoins encore trop d’incertitudes pour pouvoir proposer des décisions d’aménagement adéquates pour la forêt boréale qui tiennent compte des réponses des puits de carbone face aux changements climatiques. La modélisation représente une simplification des systèmes naturels complexes, qui exclut certains processus qui peuvent interagir dans le système. Dans cet article, nous passons d’abord en revue les processus menant aux échanges de carbone entre la forêt et l’atmosphère. Ensuite, les connaissances actuelles des impacts des changements climatiques sur les réservoirs de carbone en forêt boréale pour l’est du Canada sont exposées. Enfin, nous élaborons sur les incertitudes selon trois types différents : les incertitudes dans les données, les incertitudes structurelles et les incertitudes imprévisibles. Pour chaque type d’incertitude, des recommandations sont proposées afin de les réduire.
Mots-clés :
- modélisation,
- incertitudes,
- forêt boréale,
- réservoirs de carbone,
- changements climatiques
Abstract
Climate change is of major concern for forest managers. The boreal forest is becoming increasingly central to discussions on carbon cycling because of its capacity to compensate for anthropogenic carbon emission. The boreal forest captures relatively small amounts of carbon in comparison to more temperate or tropical forests, due its cold climate and the short growing season. However, emission of carbon from dead matter decomposition is also slow, which can result in high levels of organic matter accumulation. Models suggest that the capacity of the boreal forest to capture carbon could increase in response to climate change but current models have too many uncertainties to be able to inform appropriate management decisions, including responses of boreal carbon sinks to climate change. Models are simplifications of complex natural systems and uncertainties arise from the lack of knowledge of all the processes in the system, many of which could be interacting. In this article, we first synthesize processes leading to carbon exchange between the forest and the atmosphere. Secondly, we present current knowledge of climate change impacts on carbon sinks in the boreal forest in eastern Canada. Finally, we discuss three types of uncertainties: the uncertainties in the data, structural uncertainties and unpredictable uncertainties, and we propose recommendations for reducing each type of uncertainties.
Keywords:
- modeling,
- uncertainties,
- boreal forest,
- carbon stocks,
- climate change
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Appendices
Remerciements
Les auteurs remercient Bill de Groot, Changhui Peng et les deux réviseurs anonymes pour la relecture de la synthèse et leurs commentaires particulièrement pertinents pour l’amélioration du texte. Ils remercient également Mélanie Desrochers pour l’établissement de la figure 1, ses révisions et ses commentaires, ainsi que Jenna Jacobs pour les révisions anglophones. Ce travail a été effectué dans le cadre d’un cours au programme au doctorat des sciences de l’environnement à l’Institut des sciences de l’environnement de l’Université du Québec à Montréal. Les auteurs souhaitent remercier Dolores Planas et Francine Tremblay, les professeures de ce cours.
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